Gold IRA vs Stocks: Gold vs the S&P 500 Since 1971, Returns, Drawdowns and Recovery Times (2026 Data)

From 1971 to 2025, gold returned 9.0% a year and the S&P 500 returned 11.1% a year with dividends. That turned $10,000 into about $1.17 million in gold and about $3.30 million in stocks. Both figures are compound annual returns: the one steady yearly rate that turns the starting sum into the ending sum. The stock figure is a total return, which means the price change plus the dividends paid out.

But the start year changes the winner, and gold's worst losing streak lasted decades. What does that mean for money you may need in your 60s and 70s? A fair answer needs every start date, because gold beat stocks from some, such as 2000, and lost badly from others, such as 1980. This page is part of our gold IRA comparisons, where every gold option is set against the alternatives in dollars.

This page gives gold's and the S&P 500's returns from 11 start dates and over every rolling period since 1971. It then sets out the worst falls for each and how long each took to recover, and what gold did in the years stocks lost money. The last sections show what a gold IRA's markup, fees and taxes change, and which fits your situation. We do not name a winner, and we make no forecast.

Gold vs the S&P 500 at a Glance: 14 Facts Side by Side#

The table below compares gold and the S&P 500 on the same 14 facts, each with the data series and the date behind it. The S&P 500 is an index of 500 large US companies, and an S&P 500 index fund simply owns all of them.

Four terms in the table need a plain meaning first. Volatility shows how much yearly returns swing, measured as the standard deviation of those returns. Correlation runs from -1 to +1 and shows whether two assets move together. A custodian is the trust company that runs a gold IRA, and a depository is the vault that stores its metal.

Table T1: Gold vs the S&P 500: 14 facts, checked September 29, 2026

Returns are before costs. Gold figures use the LBMA Gold Price PM at each year-end; stock figures use the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested, from Aswath Damodaran's NYU Stern dataset. The cost and tax rows are what changes when the gold sits in an IRA.

Those last four rows show how a gold IRA works differently from a stock fund in the same account: vault storage, a dealer spread and no income. If you are new to the account itself, start with how a gold IRA works.

Has Gold Beaten the S&P 500 Since 1971? Returns by Start Date#

Gold has beaten the S&P 500 only from some start dates, such as 2000: it returned 11.0% a year from 2000 to 2025, against 8.0% for stocks. From 1981 to 2025, gold returned 4.6% a year against 11.7% for the S&P 500 with dividends. A start date is the year you buy, and a window is the years from buying to selling.

So which start date is fair? None of them alone. The honest test is every start date, which the tables below show.

A gold IRA starts from these same yearly gold prices, before the account's costs. The year-by-year record behind these numbers, including 2026, is on gold IRA returns since 1971.

Gold vs S&P 500 returns from 11 start dates#

Gold's yearly return ran from -3.8% to 18.3% depending on the window, while the S&P 500's ran from 1.4% to 15.5%, as the 11 windows below show. Each window runs through the end of its last year, so "1971-2025" means bought at the end of 1970. A real return is the return after inflation.

Table T2: Compound yearly returns by window (gold: LBMA PM year-end; S&P 500: total return, Damodaran; real: after CPI-U)

A seller who starts the chart in 2000 shows gold winning. A critic who starts in 1980 shows gold losing. Both charts are accurate; neither is the whole record.

The widest gaps sit in the 10- and 20-year windows. From 2001 to 2010, gold returned 17.7% a year while stocks returned 1.4%. From 1981 to 2000, the order flipped: gold lost 3.8% a year and stocks gained 15.5%.

The dollar columns show how far apart the endings drift. From a 1980 start, $10,000 became $85,309 in gold and $1,921,021 in stocks, about 22 times as much. From a 2000 start, gold ended about twice as high: $150,484 against $73,856.

Has gold outperformed stocks over the last 20 years? Yes, narrowly: from 2006 to 2025, gold returned 11.3% a year and the S&P 500 10.9%. After inflation the gap stayed small, at 8.6% against 8.2%, so $10,000 ended at $85,142 in gold and $79,205 in stocks.

Decade by decade: gold and stocks took turns#

Gold won the 1970s and the 2000s by a wide margin, and stocks won the 1980s, 1990s and 2010s by an equally wide margin. The table gives each decade's compound return, before and after inflation.

Table T3: Compound yearly returns by decade (gold: LBMA PM; S&P 500: total return)

Gold beat the S&P 500 in 24 of the 55 calendar years from 1971 to 2025, less than half. Those winning years bunch together in runs, such as the 1970s and the 2000s, which is why the start date matters so much. A saver who bought gold in 1980 met two losing decades in a row. A saver who bought in 2000 met a decade in which gold returned 14.1% a year and stocks lost 1.0% a year.

The 2020-2025 stretch is unusual because both did well: gold returned 19.3% a year and stocks 14.9%. The table says nothing about the next decade, and neither do we.

Rolling periods: gold beat stocks in 14 of 46 ten-year stretches#

Yes, gold has outperformed the S&P 500, but only in 14 of the 46 ten-year periods and 8 of the 36 twenty-year periods since 1971. A rolling period is every stretch of the same length, one starting each year: 1971-1980, 1972-1981 and so on up to 2016-2025. The table counts how often each asset won, lost to inflation or lost money.

Table T4: Rolling periods, 1971-2025 (gold: LBMA PM year-end; S&P 500: total return; inflation: CPI-U)

Over 30 years, gold never beat stocks: 0 of 26 thirty-year periods. The S&P 500 never lost to inflation over any 15-, 20-, 25- or 30-year period. The median, meaning the middle result, was 4.8% a year for gold against 12.9% for stocks over 10 years. Over 20 years the medians were 5.8% and 11.0%.

The rare decades when stocks went nowhere were gold's best. In 1999-2008, stocks' worst 10 years at -1.4% a year, gold returned 11.7% a year. Gold's 14 winning periods started in 1971-1974, in 1998-2006 or in 2016.

Losing money is a different test from losing to stocks. Gold lost money in 10 of the 46 ten-year periods, and every one of them started between 1980 and 1992. Stocks lost money in 2 of the 46. Over five years the gap is smaller but still clear: gold lost money in 15 of 51 periods and stocks in 5.

Why "average return" claims mislead: compound vs arithmetic#

An "average return" that simply averages each year's result overstates what you earn: gold's simple average for 1971-2022 was 10.4% a year, but its compound return was 7.8%. The simple (arithmetic) average adds up each year's return and divides by the number of years. The compound (geometric) return is the rate your money actually grew at.

Here is an illustration: a 50% loss followed by a 50% gain averages 0%, yet $100 ends at $75. Ask three questions of any return claim: is it compound, which years does it cover, and which price series does it use?

Price only vs total return: what dividends add#

Comparisons that leave out dividends understate stocks: from February 24, 2012 to September 28, 2026, the S&P 500's price rose 5.63 times, but about 7.2 times with dividends reinvested. Gold rose 2.33 times over the same window. The window starts around the release of Warren Buffett's 2011 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. A dividend is the cash a company pays its shareholders. A price index tracks only share prices, while a total return index also reinvests those dividends.

Gold pays no dividend or interest, so its price change is its whole return. One bullion dealer's blog compares gold with price-only stock returns and says so. That choice makes gold look closer to stocks than it was.

Gold vs stocks, bonds and T-bills, 1972-2025#

Over the 54 years from 1972 to 2025, stocks returned 11.06% a year, gold 8.89%, 10-year Treasuries 5.90% and T-bills 4.45%, so gold finished second of four. These figures come from Aswath Damodaran's NYU Stern dataset "Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, Bills, Real Estate and Gold", in the edition with data through 2025. A 10-year Treasury is a US government bond that repays in 10 years. A T-bill is a short US government IOU that repays within a year.

Table T5a: Four assets, 1972-2025 (Damodaran, NYU Stern)

This window is one year shorter than the 1971-2025 basis used elsewhere on this page. It leaves out 1971, when gold rose 16.7%, which is why gold shows 8.89% here and 9.0% elsewhere. Gold's yearly correlation with stocks in this window was -0.17, again close to unrelated.

Bonds answer a different question from gold: how to keep money steady, not how to grow it. For that reason, bonds, CDs and TIPS are weighed against gold on safety and income in gold IRA vs CDs, Treasuries and TIPS.

Drawdowns and Recovery Times: Gold vs the S&P 500#

Gold's worst fall lasted far longer than the stock market's: gold needed 26 years to regain its 1980 year-end price. The S&P 500 with dividends recovered from its worst falls in about 3.5 to 7 years. A drawdown is the fall from a high to a later low. The recovery time is the years from the old high until the price is back above it.

Why does the length of a fall matter more than its depth for a retiree? Because a 65-year-old may not have 26 years to wait. A fall that heals in 5 years is a bad memory; one that lasts 26 years can outlast the plan it was meant to fund.

The tables below cover only the worst falls, not every major gold drop since 1971. Each of gold's big falls, with silver's, is listed in every major gold drop since 1971.

The worst falls side by side#

Measured at year-end, gold's worst fall was 53.5% from 1980 to 2000, and the S&P 500's was 37.4% from 1999 to 2002, counting dividends. Part A uses one price per year for both assets, from Damodaran's dataset.

Table T6, Part A: Worst falls on year-end prices (Damodaran)

Part A shows that stocks fell nearly as far as gold at year-end, 37.4% against 53.5%. The difference is the wait: stocks took 7 years to pass their 1999 level again, while gold took 26 years to pass its 1980 level. Both got there in 2006.

Part B uses daily gold prices and monthly stock data, which show larger falls.

Table T6, Part B: Worst falls on daily gold fixings (LBMA) and monthly S&P 500 total return (Shiller data)

Year-end figures compare like with like, but they hide falls that happen inside a year. Daily fixings for gold and monthly total-return averages for stocks, from Robert Shiller's Yale dataset, show those deeper falls. A fixing is the LBMA's benchmark gold price, set twice each business day in London. On that basis, a buyer at gold's January 1980 peak waited 28.0 years, and a buyer at the October 2007 stock peak waited 4.8 years.

2026 shows how fast a fall can come. Gold fell 26.1% from its record LBMA PM fixing of $5,405.00 on January 29, 2026 to $3,993.55 on July 16, 2026. On September 28, 2026, it was still 23.3% below that record. Whether or when it recovers is not known, and we make no forecast.

A gold IRA buyer waits longer than these spot figures show, because the markup must be earned back first. The table uses LBMA PM prices, a 20% markup as an illustration (not one company's price) and a sale 1% below spot.

Table T6c: Recovery for a buyer at gold's peaks, at spot and after a 20% markup (SafeOunce calculation, LBMA PM)

With a 30% markup, the same 2026 peak buyer was 41.6% down on September 28, 2026, not 23.3%.

After inflation: 31 years for gold, 12 for stocks#

After inflation, gold took 31 years to regain its 1980 year-end value, while the S&P 500's worst after-inflation fall, from 1972 to 1974, was made back by 1984. Gold's fall in real terms was 77.1% from 1980 to 2001, against 48.0% for stocks. Inflation-adjusted, or real, dollars restate old prices in today's money so that the two can be compared fairly.

The daily view makes gold's wait even longer. Gold's January 1980 peak of $850 equals $3,660 in August 2026 dollars. After inflation, gold bottomed on April 2, 2001, 86.8% below that peak, and regained it only on September 3, 2025, 45.6 years later. Stocks' longest waits after inflation on the monthly series were 12.0 years (1973-1985) and 12.7 years (2000-2013).

The same pattern shows up over every rolling period. Gold lost to inflation in 19 of 46 ten-year periods and 13 of 36 twenty-year periods since 1971. Stocks lost to inflation in 5 ten-year periods and in none of the 20-year ones. Those counts test gold as an inflation hedge over normal holding periods, and what 55 years of data say about gold as an inflation hedge is a separate page.

The worst 20 years for $100,000 at age 65#

A 65-year-old who put $100,000 into gold at the start of its worst 20 years since 1971 had $46,529 at 85. The same money in the S&P 500's worst 20 years grew to $295,432. These figures include no costs, taxes or withdrawals.

Table T6b: $100,000 held 20 years. Before any costs, taxes or withdrawals. SafeOunce calculation from LBMA and Damodaran annual data

The worst case for stocks still left the saver almost three times richer. The worst case for gold left the saver with less than half the money. The median case, the middle of all 36 periods, shows the same order.

Retirees withdraw money, which changes the answer. A 4% withdrawal rate means taking out 4% of the starting balance in the first year, then the same amount raised with inflation. In SafeOunce's retiree simulations with no fees, that plan drained an all-gold $500,000 portfolio started in 1981 by 1993. The same plan in all stocks from 2000 fell to $63,997 by 2025, while all gold from 2000 grew to $3,769,842.

Mixes sat between the extremes. From 2000, a 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) ended 2025 at $624,526, at $863,729 with 10% gold and at $1,132,790 with 20% gold.

A safe withdrawal rate is the highest starting rate that lasted 30 years. Across retirements starting 1971-1996, gold raised the worst case: 4.2% for 60/40, 4.9% with 10% gold, 5.5% with 20% gold. It lowered the median: 7.5%, 7.2% and 6.8%.

The order in which good and bad years arrive is called sequence-of-returns risk, and the role of gold in it depends on the start year. Those simulations are explained in sequence-of-returns risk and the role of gold.

What Did Gold Do When the S&P 500 Fell?#

Gold rose in 7 of the 11 calendar years the S&P 500 lost money since 1971. It fell in the other 4, so it has not been a reliable mirror of stocks. Its average in those 11 losing years was strong, but two years, 1973 and 1974, did most of the work. Its record in sudden crashes was weaker, and in 3 well-known sell-offs gold fell together with stocks.

Gold in the 11 losing years for stocks, 1971-2025#

In the 11 years the S&P 500 fell, gold averaged +13.7%, helped by two huge years, 1973 and 1974. The table gives each losing year for stocks with gold and 10-year Treasuries alongside.

Table T7: The 11 losing years for the S&P 500 (gold: LBMA PM; S&P 500 total return and 10-year Treasury: Damodaran)

Note: Damodaran's own gold series gives 1974 +66.1%, 2001 +0.7% and 2022 +0.5%; the direction is the same in every year.

Gold fell in 4 of the 11 years: 1981 (-32.6%), 1990 (-3.1%), 2000 (-5.4%) and 2018 (-0.9%). Without 1973 and 1974, gold's simple average in the other 9 years was 1.3% (SafeOunce calculation from Table T7). The +13.7% average rests on the 1970s.

Treasuries rose in 9 of these 11 years. They returned 0.0% in 2018 and lost 17.8% in 2022, the only two years when bonds did not cushion stocks. In both of those years gold held roughly flat: -0.9% in 2018 and +0.4% in 2022.

Gold during recessions tells a similar story. Gold rose in 7 of the 8 US recessions since 1969, with a median gain of 5.2%, using monthly average prices and NBER recession dates. Every recession since 1969 is set out in gold during recessions.

When gold fell with stocks: 1981, 2020 and 2022#

Gold fell with stocks in 5 of the 11 S&P 500 declines of 19% or more since 1968. Three well-known cases came when interest rates jumped (1980-82 and 2022) or in a fast cash scramble (March 2020). A bear market is a fall of about 20% or more from a high. A cash scramble is a panic in which investors sell even safe assets to raise cash. The three episodes are listed below, with the S&P 500 price index on daily closes and gold on LBMA fixings.

• The 1980-82 bear market: S&P 500 -27.1%, gold -46.0% (November 28, 1980 to August 12, 1982). Gold also fell 32.6% in calendar 1981.
• The 2020 cash scramble: S&P 500 -18.9%, gold -12.4% (March 6 to March 19, 2020).
• The 2022 bear market: S&P 500 -25.4%, gold -7.5% (January 3 to October 12, 2022).

Gold during stock market crashes has a mixed record: across all 11 declines from a record close, it rose in 6 and fell in 5. Its protection held best in long bear markets: gold rose 139.4% in 1973-74 and 25.5% in 2007-09. Every 20% drop is in gold during stock market crashes.

2026 turned the usual story around. Gold fell 26.1% from January 29 to July 16, 2026, while the S&P 500 rose. By September 28, 2026, gold was down 5.1% for the year (LBMA PM) and the S&P 500 was up 12.2% (price only).

Does gold go up when stocks go down?#

No, not reliably: gold's yearly returns had a correlation of -0.16 with the S&P 500 from 1971 to 2025, which means the two were mostly unrelated rather than opposites. Month to month, the correlation was about zero: -0.002 from January 1971 to September 2023.

Gold's correlation with stocks and bonds also shifts over time. In 2016-2025, the yearly correlation with stocks turned positive, at +0.29, so the two more often rose together. The limits of this are covered in gold's correlation with stocks and bonds.

Gold IRA vs Stocks in an IRA: What Costs and Taxes Do to the Result#

The returns above are before costs, and a gold IRA costs far more to hold than an S&P 500 index fund, which cuts gold's wins further. How much further? We ran every 10- and 20-year period again with real IRA costs. A markup is what a dealer charges above the metal's market price; the spread is the full gap between what you pay and what a dealer pays you back.

Markups and spreads come out of your money on the day you buy, before gold moves at all. The biggest cost is the dealer's markup, explained in gold IRA markups and spreads.

A gold IRA's costs vs an S&P 500 index fund#

On $100,000, a gold IRA's yearly account fees come to $285, while an S&P 500 index fund charging 0.0945% (SPY, as of September 29, 2026) costs about $95. The gold IRA also loses its spread when you buy and sell.

The gold IRA's yearly fee is flat, so it weighs more on a small account: $285 is 0.285% of $100,000 but 0.57% of $50,000. The spread is paid up front. On $100,000, a 5.39% round trip costs $5,390, and at a 23.4% spread the metal you own is worth $76,600 on day one.

Two more terms help here. An expense ratio is a fund's yearly fee as a share of your balance. A round trip is the total you lose if you buy and then sell at once.

The table sets two gold IRA routes against an S&P 500 index fund in an IRA, line by line, as of September 29, 2026.

Table T8: Costs on $100,000 (as of September 29, 2026)

The spread sets how far gold must climb before you are even. At a 23.4% spread, gold must rise 30.5% for the metal to be worth what you paid, and 37.0% once the 4.6875% buyback gap is added.

Most of the gap between a gold IRA and a gold ETF is the dealer spread. A gold ETF held in an IRA you already have charges 0.10% a year (GLDM, per its 2025 annual report), and you buy fund shares instead of coins. Gold exposure at fund-like cost is compared in gold IRA vs gold ETF.

Rolling periods after costs: 14, 12 or 10 wins out of 46#

After IRA costs, gold beat an S&P 500 index fund in 12 of 46 ten-year periods on a low-cost route, down from 14 before costs. At a 23.4% spread, it won only 10.

Table T9: SafeOunce calculation, $100,000, windows 1971-2025

The calculation rests on five assumptions, listed below.

• Start: $100,000 invested at the end of the year before each period begins.
• Gold IRA: $50 setup; the round-trip cost taken on day one; $285 a year paid by selling metal; $280 to close.
• High-spread route: metal worth 76.6% of the price paid, sold 4.6875% below its value.
• Index fund: S&P 500 total return minus 0.0945% a year.
• Taxes and withdrawals: none.

The medians tell the same story. A typical 10-year period turned $100,000 into $160,057 at spot but $113,422 at the high spread, while the index fund's median was $333,134.

Account fees alone changed nothing in the 10-year count, which stayed at 14. They did cut the worst 20-year result from $46,529 to $41,839. The spread, not the account fee, decides most results.

To test your own quote, the gold IRA break-even calculator turns your spread and fees into the rise gold needs to cover them.

2016-2025: gold beat stocks, the gold IRA did not#

From 2016 to 2025 gold at spot turned $100,000 into $412,012 and beat an S&P 500 fund's $389,641, but a low-cost gold IRA ended at $382,047 and lost. The table shows all four results for $100,000 held from the end of 2015 to the end of 2025.

Table T9b: $100,000, 2016-2025 (SafeOunce calculation, same assumptions as Table T9)

Gold's lead before costs was small, only about half a point a year, so the costs reversed it. The same test for 2000-2025, one of gold's strongest start dates, ends differently. A low-cost gold IRA reached $1,382,662 (10.6% a year) against $720,508 (7.9%) for the S&P 500 fund. Even the 23.4% route, at $1,059,802 (9.5% a year), still won.

Costs shrink gold's lead; they reverse it only when the lead is small. To try another start year with the same cost inputs, use the gold IRA calculator, which runs on real historical returns.

Taxes: the same inside an IRA, different outside it#

Inside a traditional IRA, gold and stocks are taxed the same way, as ordinary income when you withdraw, so the famous 28% gold tax rate does not apply there. Ordinary income means the withdrawal is taxed at your regular income-tax rate, the same as wages (IRS Publication 590-B). That holds whether the IRA held coins or an S&P 500 fund.

Outside an IRA, gold coins, bars and grantor-trust gold ETFs such as GLD and IAU are collectibles. Their long-term gains, meaning profits on assets held more than one year, are taxed at your ordinary rate up to a 28% cap (26 U.S.C. 1(h)(4)-(5)). Stock gains get 0%, 15% or 20% instead: in 2026, a married couple filing jointly pays 0% up to $98,900 of taxable income and 15% up to $613,700 (Rev. Proc. 2025-32). Who pays the 28% collectibles rate, and when, is explained separately.

The 3.8% net investment income tax can come on top. It applies when modified adjusted gross income tops $250,000 for a joint return, and it adds the same amount to the gold sale and the stock sale. IRA withdrawals are exempt from it (26 U.S.C. 1411(c)(5)), which helps gold and stocks alike.

In a Roth IRA, qualified withdrawals are tax-free for both gold and stocks (26 U.S.C. 408A). So inside either IRA type, gold IRA taxes and stock IRA taxes match, and only the costs differ. Every tax step from contribution to distribution is on gold IRA taxes.

RMDs: gold pays no dividends#

Required minimum distributions start at 73 for people born 1951-1958 and at 75 for those born 1960 or later. A gold IRA must sell metal or hand you coins to meet them. Required minimum distributions (RMDs) are the yearly withdrawals the tax code forces from a traditional IRA (26 U.S.C. 401(a)(9)). Gold pays no dividends, so there is no cash building up to cover the withdrawal.

A gold IRA follows the same RMD ages as any traditional IRA. Ages, deadlines and in-kind options are in gold IRA required minimum distributions.

Gold or Stocks: Which Fits Your Situation?#

Neither gold nor stocks is better for everyone: the record favors stocks over long periods, and gold in the rare decades when stocks went nowhere. Costs decide how much of gold's edge you keep. A gold IRA also adds a markup, yearly fees and forced sales of metal for RMDs that a stock fund does not have.

The nine situations below each come with the fact from this page that decides them. Each row points to a table above, so you can check the numbers yourself.

Table T10: Gold or stocks by situation (1971-2025 unless stated)

Two rows often apply at once. A 66-year-old who holds mostly stocks in an old 401(k) fits the row about 2008 or 2022. With a high-spread quote, the same reader also fits the high-spread row, which can cancel the benefit of the first.

A mix of the two raises a different question: how much gold to hold in an IRA. What 55 years of data say about mixing the two is in how much gold to hold in an IRA.

We show the record, not a prediction, and we name no winner. The answer depends on the years you hold and what you pay to hold them. A reader who holds for 30 years at a low cost faces a different record from one who holds for 5 years at a 23.4% spread.

Is gold a better investment than the S&P 500? Over most periods since 1971, no; from some start dates, such as 2000, yes. Whether a gold IRA is a good investment for you also depends on storage, access and costs. For the full case for and against, see is a gold IRA a good investment.

What Should You Check Before Moving Stock Money Into a Gold IRA?#

Check five things in writing before you sell stocks or roll a 401(k) into a gold IRA. They are the years behind any return claim, the spread, the yearly fees, how the money moves and when you will need it. The five checks are listed below in the order you meet them.

1. Ask which years and which price series any "gold beat stocks" claim uses.
2. Ask for the spread on each coin as a percent, and for the price the company would pay you back today.
3. Ask for every yearly fee and every exit fee.
4. Check that the money moves by direct rollover or transfer, so nothing is withheld.
5. Match the money to when you need it: gold lost money in 10 of the 46 ten-year periods since 1971 (Table T4).

A direct rollover sends 401(k) money straight to the new IRA's custodian. A transfer moves IRA money from one custodian to another. Neither passes through your hands, so there is no 60-day clock and no withholding (IRS Publication 590-A).

A 401(k) check paid to you instead has 20% withheld (26 U.S.C. 3405(c)). Read the 401(k) to gold IRA rollover rules first when the money sits in an old 401(k).

Check 5 matters most for readers over 60. Stocks lost money in 2 of the same 46 ten-year periods, and gold in 10.

Gold and silver for retirement behave differently from stocks in one key way: they pay no income, so every withdrawal means selling metal. For how gold and silver behave over a retirement, see gold and silver for retirement.

SafeOunce takes no money from any company named on this page. No company can pay to change what this page shows.

How to test any "gold beat the S&P 500" claim#

Most "gold vs stocks" claims online are true for the window they chose and misleading for yours. We checked the five claims below on September 29, 2026: four pages were read in full, and the forum thread only by its title. Each claim is set against the full record on this page.

Table T11: Five claims tested against the 1971-2025 record

Forecasts are a sixth kind of claim. A May 12, 2026 news post quoted bank targets of $5,400 to $6,300 for gold by year-end. On September 28, 2026, the LBMA PM price was $4,144.55. SafeOunce prints no forecasts.

Four gaps repeat across these claims: a short window, a lucky start date, missing dividends and the wrong asset. None of the pages we could read counts every start date, and none subtracts what a gold IRA buyer pays. Use the three questions from the averages section on any new claim: is it compound, which years, and which price series?

Related questions about gold and stocks#

These questions are answered in full on other SafeOunce pages; the short answers are below.

What does Warren Buffett say about gold?#

Warren Buffett wrote in his 2011 shareholder letter that "if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end". He meant that gold produces nothing, unlike a business. From February 24, 2012, around the letter's release, to September 28, 2026, gold rose 2.33 times and the S&P 500 about 7.2 times with dividends. His reasoning is laid out in why Warren Buffett says no to gold.

What if you had invested $10,000 in gold 20 years ago?#

$10,000 in gold on September 28, 2006 was worth $68,732 on September 28, 2026 at the LBMA price, before any IRA costs. The S&P 500's price alone turned it into $57,389, and more with dividends. Inside a gold IRA, the markup and fees cut that figure, so what $10,000 in gold became after IRA costs depends on your spread. The same money in a gold IRA is worked out in what $10,000 in gold became after IRA costs.

How much gold should you hold next to stocks?#

No study we could read gives one right percentage, and the "5% to 10%" rule seen on sales pages has no cited source. In SafeOunce backtests, a 10% gold slice in a 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) cut volatility from 11.2% to 9.9% over 1972-2025. From a 1981 start, the same slice lowered the return from 10.1% to 9.7% a year. A gold allocation backtester replays mixes of 0% to 30% gold through past returns. Test mixes yourself in the gold allocation backtester.

Are gold mining stocks the same as gold?#

No: mining shares are stocks of companies that dig gold, and they swing far more than the metal. From 2011 to 2015, the GDX miners fund lost 76.8% in total while gold fell 24.6%. The "gold vs S&P 500" backtest in Table T11 compares a mining-share index, not gold. Choosing between metal and mining companies, and what each costs, is covered in gold IRA vs gold mining stocks.

Is a gold ETF cheaper than a gold IRA?#

Yes, for price exposure: gold ETFs charge 0.10% to 0.40% a year (GLDM, IAU, GLD), with no custodian or storage bill. Those fees come from the funds' 2025-2026 annual reports, and the funds can sit in the IRA you already have. Every fund, including IAU at 0.25% a year, is listed in gold and silver ETFs for your IRA.

Other gold IRA comparisons#

Gold IRAs are compared with each main alternative on its own page. Five of those comparisons are listed below.

• Coins at home: gold IRA vs physical gold compares costs, taxes, control and access.
• Workplace plans: gold IRA vs 401(k) sets out the differences and whether to move your money.
• Roth accounts: gold IRA vs Roth IRA explains why the real question is traditional vs Roth.
• Silver: gold vs silver IRA compares volatility, storage costs and allocation.
• Annuities: gold IRA vs annuity compares guarantees, fees and liquidity.