The gold IRA break-even calculator turns one price quote into the rise the metal price needs before you are even. After a 20% dealer spread and the buyback in the dealers' shared contract example, gold must rise about 31%. How much of that rise comes from the markup, the buyback and the yearly fees? The calculator shows each part.
The markup, also called the spread, is the part of your price that is not metal. The buyback is what a dealer pays you when you sell. Break-even is the rise at which you get back what you paid.
It is one of the free gold IRA calculators on SafeOunce: no name, email or phone number needed, and your numbers stay in your browser. Below it: 3 formulas, 14 dealer spreads, 4 real quotes, the "free silver" math and 6 input mistakes.
Calculator
Break-even calculator: how much must the price rise?
Type in the price you were quoted and the metal price at that time. The tool shows how far the price must rise before you are even.
How Does the Gold IRA Break-Even Calculator Work?#
The gold IRA break-even calculator turns your quote and account fees into 3 numbers: the price rise that covers the markup, then the buyback, then the fees. Each number includes the one before it.
You can start from a price quote (Mode 1) or from a markup percentage (Mode 2). The answer appears as one sentence, then as a table, then in a "How we calculated this" panel with the formulas and dated sources. A warning appears when the markup is above 20%. It cites the CFTC's customer advisory (release 8215-20, August 4, 2020), which puts bullion at about 5% to 10% over spot.
What you need from your quote: 5 numbers#
You need 5 numbers from a gold IRA quote: the coin's price, its pure metal, the spot price, the dealer's buyback bid and your account fees. The 5 inputs are listed below.
- Price per coin or bar: the price on your written quote or invoice.
- Pure metal content: a 1 oz Gold Eagle holds 1 troy ounce of fine gold, and a 1/10 oz coin holds 0.1. A troy ounce is the metals-trade ounce, about 31.1 grams.
- Spot price when you were quoted: the wholesale market price for one troy ounce. No one buys retail coins at spot.
- Buyback bid (optional): what the dealer would pay you for the same coin today; leave it empty if unknown.
- Account fees: the setup fee, the yearly custodian and storage fees, and the fees to sell and close.
Ask for the price per coin in writing. On March 20, 2024, the CFTC and FINRA published "10 Things to Ask Before Buying Physical Gold, Silver, or Other Metals." It says: "If fees are not available in writing before your purchase, that is a red flag."
Mode 1: Use it as a gold spread calculator from a price quote#
In Mode 1 the tool works as a gold spread calculator: it shows how much of your quoted price is not metal. It multiplies the spot price by the metal in the coin to get the metal value, also called melt value: what the pure metal alone is worth.
The spot price field fills in from SafeOunce's price feed. Change it to the spot price at the time of your quote. Today's gold spot: $4,180.60 (Sep 29, 2026, 22:22 UTC). Why you always pay more than the spot price of gold is explained separately.
The share of your price above metal value is the premium. The CFTC printed the formula in the same 2020 advisory:
Enter the dealer's buyback bid for the same coin today, and the tool turns it into a discount below metal value. A bid above metal value triggers a warning, because that is unusual for bullion.
Mode 2: Start from a markup percentage#
In Mode 2 you type a markup percentage, or pick one of 4 dated presets, when you have a contract range or an example instead of a price quote. The table shows the 4 presets as the calculator loads them.
| Preset | Markup | Buyback discount | What it is | Source and date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low-cost bullion | 5.4% | 0% (already a round trip) | 1 oz Gold Eagle bought and sold back at one large online dealer | SD Bullion prices, September 29, 2026 |
| Settlement benchmark | 12% | 4.6875% | Reference spread used to figure refunds in the Lear Capital bankruptcy plan | Plan confirmed June 12, 2023 |
| One dealer's 2022 average | 23.4% | 4.6875% | Lear Capital's own 2022 average, stated in its court-filed Chapter 11 plan; not an industry average | Doc 694, June 5, 2023 |
| "Exclusive" coin cap | 39.99% | 4.6875% | Top of the "up to" cap for exclusive and semi-numismatic coins in American Hartford Gold's agreement; a cap, not a quote | Shipping and Transaction Agreement, September 2026 |
Pick 5.4% for plain bullion coins bought online, or 23.4% or 39.99% for the "premium" coins IRA sellers often recommend.
A round trip is what you lose if you buy and sell back at once. A contract cap is the most a dealer may charge, not what you are charged; your exact spread is on your invoice. "Semi-numismatic" is not a real category: the CFTC calls it "a made-up industry term that really has no special meaning" (10 Things advisory, 2024).
Contract markups and spreads differ widely by dealer and by coin. Dealers' contract ranges and the regulators' findings are compared on gold IRA markups and spreads.
Account fees: the default schedule and when to change it#
The fee fields start with Equity Trust's metals-only schedule (FS-0004-05 Rev. 081726): $50 to open, $285 a year with segregated storage and $280 to sell and close. The 3 default values break down as listed below.
- Setup: $50, paid once.
- Yearly: $285 = $125 administration + $160 segregated storage. Segregated storage keeps your own coins apart. Non-segregated (shared) storage pools them with identical coins of other owners and costs $110, for $235 a year.
- Exit: $280 = a $30 liquidation fee (the charge to sell metal) + a $250 termination fee (the charge to close the account).
Change the defaults to your own custodian fees. Published metals custodian costs ran from $215 to $656 a year on a $50,000 account as of September 29, 2026. The tool assumes you pay fees from outside the IRA; selling metal inside the IRA to pay them costs more.
Count billing dates, not years. The schedule bills the yearly fee at opening and storage when metal arrives, then both again each January, not prorated. Non-segregated metal arriving December 15 is billed $110, then $110 again on January 1, so a 10-year hold can carry 11 yearly charges.
Setup, yearly and transaction charges of each custodian are listed under gold IRA custodian fees.
How Much Must Gold Rise to Break Even? The 3 Formulas Behind the Calculator#
After a 20% dealer spread, gold must rise 25% just to reach the dealer's cost and about 31% before the contract-example buyback gets you even. Yearly fees push it higher the longer you hold. The calculator shows 3 rises, one for each layer of cost, in the order below.
1. The rise that covers the markup#
The rise that covers the markup equals the markup divided by the part of the price that is metal: s ÷ (1 - s). Here s is the spread as a share of your price.
rise to cover the markup = s / (1 - s)
s = (price - metal value) / price
At a 23.4% spread, 0.234 / 0.766 = 30.5%. At a 5% spread, the rise is 5.3%. At 39.99%, it is 66.6%.
The rise is always bigger than the markup, because it grows from the smaller metal value.
2. The rise that covers the buyback discount#
When you sell, a dealer pays a bid below the metal value, so the full break-even rise is 1 ÷ ((1 - s) x (1 - b)) - 1. Here b is the buyback discount below metal value. The shortcut: the price you paid divided by today's bid, minus 1.
rise with the buyback = 1 / ((1 - s)(1 - b)) - 1
= price paid / buyback bid - 1
On September 29, 2026, SD Bullion sold a 1 oz Gold Eagle for $4,280.53 and bid $4,049.93 for it. $4,280.53 / $4,049.93 - 1 = 5.69%. Sold back at once, the coin lost 5.39%: that is its round trip. This is one dated snapshot, and the bid page can lag.
Today's spot price x (1 + rise) is the break-even spot price: your price target. Pacific Precious Metals sold the same coin that morning for $4,278.56 and bid $4,038.69. Against a Kitco bid of $4,148.10, its break-even spot was $4,394.47, 5.94% higher.
3. The rise that covers account fees over the years you hold#
Fees add a third layer: divide everything you pay (price plus setup, yearly and exit fees) by what the metal is worth at the buyback price, and subtract 1. P is the amount you invest.
rise with fees = (P + setup + years x yearly fee + exit) / (P x (1 - s) x (1 - b)) - 1
per year = (1 + rise with fees)^(1 / years) - 1
Take $100,000 at a 23.4% spread and a 4.6875% buyback discount, held 10 years. Fees are $50 + 10 x $285 + $280 = $3,180. Then $103,180 / ($100,000 x 0.766 x 0.953125) - 1 = 41.3% over 10 years. Fee drag, the part of the rise caused by account fees, adds 4.3 points to the 37.0% from spread and buyback.
The per-year figure is a compound rate: each year's rise builds on the last. Here it is 3.52% a year. The divisor is the metal you own at the bid, not the money you invested (mistake 3 below).
Percentages hide the dollar size of the fees. To see the same costs in dollars for up to 3 custodians, use the gold IRA fee calculator.
Break-Even Table: 14 Spreads From Dealer Contracts and the Rise Each Needs#
The table below turns 14 spreads, most of them written into gold IRA dealers' own contracts, into the rise gold needs before you break even. A spread cap is the highest spread a contract allows. The buyback gap is how far the dealer's bid sits below its cost.
| Spread (share of price) | Where the number comes from | Rise to reach the dealer's cost | Loss if sold back at once | Rise needed including the buyback gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | Low-cost, wholesale-like | 2.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% |
| 5% | CFTC bullion benchmark 5%-10% (2020) | 5.3% | 9.5% | 10.4% |
| 7% | American Bullion low end (agreement, October 2024) | 7.5% | 11.4% | 12.8% |
| 10% | Round number | 11.1% | 14.2% | 16.6% |
| 12% | Lear bankruptcy-plan refund benchmark (2023) | 13.6% | 16.1% | 19.2% |
| 15% | Round number | 17.6% | 19.0% | 23.4% |
| 17% | Rosland Capital IRA low end (archived 2024) | 20.5% | 20.9% | 26.4% |
| 19.99% | American Hartford Gold bullion cap, "up to" (September 2026) | 25.0% | 23.7% | 31.1% |
| 23.4% | Lear Capital's own 2022 average (Doc 694, 2023) | 30.5% | 27.0% | 37.0% |
| 25% | Rosland Capital IRA high end (archived 2024) | 33.3% | 28.5% | 39.9% |
| 33% | Lear Capital's own 2022 maximum (Doc 694, 2023) | 49.3% | 36.1% | 56.6% |
| 34.99% | Preserve Gold IRA "generally up to" (June 2025); American Hartford Gold cap (2023) | 53.8% | 38.0% | 61.4% |
| 39.99% | American Hartford Gold exclusive and semi-numismatic cap, "up to" (September 2026) | 66.6% | 42.8% | 74.8% |
| 59.99% | American Hartford Gold limited numismatic cap, "up to" (September 2026) | 149.9% | 61.9% | 162.2% |
Buyback gap = the contract template's bid, about 4.69% below the dealer's cost ($30.50 vs $32). Caps are maximums ("up to"), not prices charged. Fees excluded. SafeOunce computation, September 29, 2026.
Plain 1 oz bullion coins bought from a large online dealer sat near the top 2 rows on September 29, 2026, with a 5.39% round trip on a Gold Eagle. The rows from 15% and above match the "premium", "exclusive" and collector coins IRA sellers often recommend.
The same contracts also decide what happens when a purchase goes wrong. Cancellation windows, arbitration and claim deadlines are set side by side in gold IRA company contracts compared.
Why a 20% spread needs a 31% rise#
A 20% spread needs a 31% rise because you lose twice. You lose once when 20% of your price goes to the dealer, and again when the dealer buys back below its own cost.
Lear Capital's terms and conditions (December 2025), Preserve Gold's agreement (2025) and Rosland Capital's (2024) share one example. Rosland filed a liquidating Chapter 11 case on July 2, 2026 (Bankr. C.D. Cal. 2:26-bk-16650-BB). A coin sold at "$40 with a 20% Spread" cost the dealer "$32", and a buyback "at the same moment in time might be approximately $30.50."
The 3 steps are listed below.
- You pay $40. The metal and the dealer's cost are $32, a 20% spread.
- The dealer bids about $30.50, 4.69% below its cost. Selling at once loses 23.75%.
- $40 / $30.50 - 1 = 31.1%. That is the rise you need to break even.
This template gives the 12%, 23.4% and 39.99% presets their 4.6875% buyback discount, treating the dealer's cost as the metal value. The contracts say "might be approximately", so the bid is an example, not a promise. For a real invoice, use Mode 1 with a real bid.
How Do Fees and Account Size Change the Break-Even Point?#
Flat yearly fees raise the break-even most on small accounts: at a 5.4% round trip, 10 years needs a 9.1% rise on $100,000 but 39.3% on $10,000. A flat fee is a fixed dollar charge that does not change with your balance.
The table below shows the 10-year rise needed by account size. It uses the default fees ($50 setup, $285 a year, $280 exit), a flat gold price and fees paid from outside the IRA.
| Account size | 5.4% round trip | 23.4% spread + buyback gap | 39.99% spread + buyback gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50,000 | 12.4% total / 1.18% a year | 45.7% / 3.83% | 86.0% / 6.40% |
| $100,000 | 9.1% / 0.87% | 41.3% / 3.52% | 80.4% / 6.08% |
| $250,000 | 7.1% / 0.68% | 38.7% / 3.33% | 77.1% / 5.88% |
| Small accounts: $10,000 | 39.3% / 3.37% | not computed | not computed |
| Small accounts: $25,000 | 19.2% / 1.77% | not computed | not computed |
The next table shows year 1 alone, with $300 of fees and a sale 1% below spot.
| Premium paid | $10,000 account: rise needed in year 1 | $100,000 account: rise needed in year 1 |
|---|---|---|
| 3% | 7.2% | 4.4% |
| 5% | 9.2% | 6.4% |
| 10% | 14.4% | 11.4% |
| 30% | 35.3% | 31.7% |
A flat $285 a year is 5.70% of a $5,000 account, 2.85% of $10,000, 1.14% of $25,000, 0.57% of $50,000 and 0.29% of $100,000.
Flat fees are not the only kind: Madison Trust and Entrust add value-based charges above set balances, per their schedules as of September 29, 2026. Whether a percentage fee beats a flat one at your balance is worked out in flat vs scaled gold IRA fees.
How many years it takes to earn back a markup#
Earning back a dealer's markup takes about 2 years after a 5% spread and 9.2 years after a 33% spread, if metal rises a steady 5% a year. Those figures include the buyback gap but no yearly fees.
years = ln(1 + rise needed) / ln(1 + yearly growth)
The "ln" is the natural logarithm, a button on any scientific calculator. The table below applies it at 5% and 8% a year.
| Spread | Rise needed incl. buyback gap | Years at 5% a year | Years at 8% a year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | 10.4% | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 19.99% | 31.1% | 5.6 | 3.5 |
| 23.4% | 37.0% | 6.5 | 4.1 |
| 33% | 56.6% | 9.2 | 5.8 |
Gold does not rise at a steady rate. On the LBMA PM price, the London afternoon benchmark, gold fell 26.1% from its record of $5,405.00 on January 29, 2026 to $3,993.55 on July 16, 2026. These growth rates are illustrations, not forecasts.
Traditional IRA owners must start required minimum distributions at 73 (75 if born in 1960 or later). These can force a sale at the bid, or coins taken out, whatever the break-even. A buyer near 73 may not be able to wait out 6 to 9 years.
What history shows: 41 ten-year periods and 3 peak buyers#
In 21 of 41 ten-year periods since 1975, a $100,000 gold IRA bought at a 23.4% spread ended below the $100,000 invested, after $285 a year in fees. At a 5.4% round trip, 13 of the 41 did.
Each period starts at a year-end LBMA PM price from 1975 to 2015 and runs 10 years, so the periods overlap (rolling 10-year windows). Fees are $50 to open, $285 a year and $280 to exit. The median is the middle result: half the periods ended higher, half lower.
| Cost scenario | Periods ending below $100,000 | Median value after 10 years |
|---|---|---|
| Zero costs | 10 of 41 (24%) | $139,287 |
| Fees only | 11 of 41 (27%) | $136,107 |
| 5.4% round trip + fees | 13 of 41 (32%) | $128,586 |
| 23.4% spread + fees | 21 of 41 (51%) | $98,513 |
| 39.99% spread + fees | 25 of 41 (61%) | $76,488 |
LBMA PM year-end prices, starts 1975-2015. The worst window in every row is 1987-1997. SafeOunce computation.
Three peak buyers, listed below on LBMA PM prices, show how long a break-even can take. Each break-even spot = purchase price x (1 + markup) / 0.99, because the example sells 1% below spot.
- January 21, 1980, at $850: with a 5% markup, the break-even spot of $902 was reached on January 14, 2008.
- September 6, 2011, at $1,895: with a 20% markup, gold needed $2,297 and reached it on April 5, 2024, 12.6 years later.
- January 29, 2026, at $5,405.00: a 5% markup needs $5,733 and a 20% markup needs $6,552. Neither was reached by September 28, 2026, when the LBMA PM price was $4,144.55.
These past periods are not a forecast. To run your own start year with fees and markup, use the growth calculator built on real historical returns. Year-by-year results sit on the gold IRA returns page.
Worked Examples: 4 Gold IRA Quotes Run Through the Calculator#
These 4 real quotes show how far apart break-even points can be for the same metal, from 5.69% to 46.6%. Each uses fixed, dated inputs, so your live result differs.
A 1 oz Gold Eagle from an online dealer, and the $248 gap across dealers#
A 1 oz Gold Eagle bought for $4,280.53 on September 29, 2026 needed a 5.69% rise to break even at the same dealer's $4,049.93 bid. The ask is the dealer's selling price. The wire price is the ask for paying by bank wire rather than by card.
| Mode 1 input or result | Value (SD Bullion, September 29, 2026) |
|---|---|
| Price (wire price) | $4,280.53 |
| Pure gold | 1 troy ounce |
| Buyback bid | $4,049.93 |
| Loss if sold back at once | 5.39% |
| Rise needed to break even | 5.69% |
Against a Kitco bid of $4,148.10, 5 dealers' prices ran from $4,259.61 (2.69% over) to $4,508.06 (8.68% over). That is a $248.45 gap on one coin. Get 2 written quotes in the same hour; the calculator shows what the gap costs.
Same-morning sources, September 29, 2026 (alphabetical, not ranked): Blanchard, Fisher, Pacific Precious Metals, Summit and Texas Precious Metals websites.
Whether buying through a bullion dealer or a gold IRA company costs less is compared in bullion dealer vs gold IRA company.
A $100,000 order at a 23.4% spread#
At Lear Capital's own 2022 average spread of 23.4%, a $100,000 gold IRA holds about $76,600 of metal on day one. It needs a 41.3% rise over 10 years, or 3.52% a year, to break even after fees.
| Mode 2 input or result | Value |
|---|---|
| Markup preset | 23.4% |
| Buyback discount | 4.6875% |
| Amount and years | $100,000, 10 years |
| Fees | $50 setup, $285 a year, $280 exit |
| Rise to cover the markup | 30.5% |
| Rise with the buyback | 37.0% |
| Rise with fees | 41.3% total, 3.52% a year |
Of the 41.3%, the spread alone accounts for 30.5 points, the buyback gap for 6.5 and the fees for 4.3. Lear stated this average in its court-filed Chapter 11 plan (Doc 694, June 5, 2023); it is one company's figure, not an industry average.
A real invoice from a state enforcement order#
A Texas State Securities Board order shows the break-even math on a real gold IRA purchase: gold had to rise 36.8% just to catch up. The coins cost $647.20 each, and the IRA custodian valued them at $473.03.
A cease-and-desist order is a regulator's order to stop a practice. Emergency Cease and Desist Order ENF-21-CDO-1844 (July 22, 2021) names GSI Exchange (True Bullion LLC). According to the order, investor R.H. "purchased 413 gold coins ... for approximately $647.20 per gold coin." The seller had bought them "for approximately $503.00 per gold coin." And "STRATA Trust records reflect the market value of the gold coins was only $473.03 per coin on December 31, 2020."
| Input or result | Value |
|---|---|
| Price paid per coin | $647.20 |
| Dealer's cost per coin | $503.00 |
| Custodian value, December 31, 2020 | $473.03 |
| Spread as share of price | 22.3% (28.7% over the dealer's cost) |
| Statement value as share of price | 73.1% |
| Rise needed from statement value to price paid | 36.8% |
| 413 coins: paid vs year-end value | $267,293.60 vs $195,361.39 |
The case ended in consent order ENF-23-CDO-1875, effective September 15, 2023, with a rescission offer: an offer to refund buyers who hand back what they bought. GSI consented "without admitting or denying" the findings. The order sits with the other cases in the tracker of precious metals IRA enforcement actions.
Silver, platinum and palladium quotes#
Silver and palladium quotes need much bigger rises than gold: 17.1% for a 1 oz Silver Eagle and 46.6% for a Palladium Maple Leaf on September 29, 2026. Both are round trips at one large online dealer, SD Bullion. A round is a coin-shaped piece of bullion from a private mint, with no face value; a bar is a block of metal.
The table below turns each round-trip loss into the rise needed, with rise = 1 / (1 - loss) - 1.
| Product | Round-trip loss (SD Bullion, September 29, 2026) | Rise needed to break even |
|---|---|---|
| 1 oz Gold Eagle | 5.39% | 5.7% |
| 1 oz Gold Buffalo | 7.44% | 8.0% |
| 1 oz platinum bar | 8.1% | 8.8% |
| 1 oz Silver Eagle | 14.6% | 17.1% |
| 100 oz silver bar | 15.3% | 18.1% |
| 1 oz silver round | 17.1% | 20.6% |
| 1 oz Palladium Maple Leaf | 31.8% | 46.6% |
These are one dealer's prices on one morning. Same-morning Silver Eagle prices ran from 8.28% to about 29.9% over a Kitco bid of $60.72. The calculator's metal selector fills in the spot price for all 4 metals.
A silver IRA follows the same math with bigger numbers. What else changes for metal other than gold is covered in the silver IRA guide.
Does Free Silver Lower Your Break-Even? The Bonus-Metal Formula#
Free silver lowers your break-even only when the coins you must buy to get it are priced close to plain bullion. Counted at metal value, a 10% bonus matches a 5.9% bullion premium only if the required coins carry a markup of 16.5% or less.
Bonus metal is extra metal a seller adds when you buy a set amount of its coins. The effective premium is what you really pay over metal value once the bonus, counted at metal value, is included.
effective premium = (1 + markup) / (1 + bonus) - 1
The calculator has no bonus field yet, so enter the effective premium as your markup in Mode 2. The table below shows 5 cases.
| Markup on the required coins | Bonus | Effective premium |
|---|---|---|
| 16.5% | 10% | 5.9% |
| 11.2% | 5% | 5.9% |
| 20% | 10% | 9.1% |
| 30% | 10% | 18.2% |
| 30% | 5% | 23.8% |
Goldco's website gives one dated example of the wording (September 29, 2026). It offers "up to 5% back in FREE Silver" on $50,000 to $99,999 and "10%" on $100,000 or more "in Goldco premium coins".
Bonuses are usually valued at retail, not at metal value. On September 29, 2026, a 1 oz Silver Eagle cost 16.1% over spot at SD Bullion, so $10,000 of "free" silver held about $8,613 of metal. On a $100,000 order, total metal is $103,613 at a 5% spread on the required coins, $88,613 at 20% and $78,613 at 30%. Plain bullion at a 5% spread gives $95,000, so the bonus wins only up to a 13.6% spread.
Which limit applies depends on how the offer values the bonus. Use 16.5% (a markup over metal value) when the bonus is stated at metal value, and 13.6% (a spread of your price) when it is stated at retail. A 16.5% markup equals a 14.2% spread, so a retail-valued bonus leaves less room.
The Federal Trade Commission's Guide Concerning Use of the Word "Free" (16 CFR 251.1(b)(1)) covers this. A seller must not recover the cost of the free item "by marking up the price of the article which must be purchased."
Taxes on bonus metal are not settled. IRS Publication 590-A allows only small trustee gifts ($10 for deposits under $5,000, $20 for $5,000 or more), and SafeOunce found no IRS text on large dealer bonuses.
Every free silver offer is paid for somewhere in the price. How each is paid for is examined in free silver and bonus metal gold IRA promotions.
6 Input Mistakes That Make a Gold IRA Break-Even Look Better Than It Is#
Six input mistakes make a gold IRA break-even look smaller than it is. Each one, with its fix, is covered below.
1. Measuring the markup from the dealer's cost instead of the metal value#
A contract spread is measured from the dealer's cost, not from the metal value, so the safest input is the real metal value in Mode 1. If all you have is a markup over cost, convert it first: a 30% markup is a 23.1% spread of your price.
A markup over cost is the dealer's profit divided by what the dealer paid. A spread is the same dollars divided by what you paid. The table below converts one into the other.
| Markup over cost | Spread (share of your price) | Rise to the dealer's cost |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| 10% | 9.1% | 10.0% |
| 20% | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| 30% | 23.1% | 30.0% |
| 50% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| 100% | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| About 130% (top of Red Rock Secured's 91.89%-129.97% markups over cost, CFTC consent order, April 23, 2024) | 56.5% | 130.0% |
The conversions are spread = markup / (1 + markup) and markup = spread / (1 - spread). "Premium over metal value" is a third measure: the CFTC formula divides by your price, while dealer premiums often divide by the metal value. So one deal can read "25% spread", "33% markup" and "35% premium".
The error runs both ways. A contract spread understates the cost when the dealer paid more than metal value, and a markup over cost typed as a spread overstates the rise.
2. Using the spot price as your sale price#
You sell at the dealer's bid, not at spot, so leaving the bid out cuts the break-even from 37% to 30.5% at a 23.4% spread. That gap is the buyback discount.
The CFTC's 10 Things advisory (2024) says: "A dealer will always sell metal above the spot price and buy it back below the spot price." Dealer contracts say any buyback happens at the dealer's bid at that time. With no bid in hand, use Mode 2's 4.6875% template discount or the 5.4% round-trip preset.
Taking the coins themselves out (an in-kind distribution) removes the buyback gap but adds costs. The default schedule charges $125 per in-kind distribution plus shipping at cost + $10 (minimum $50), not the $30 liquidation fee. The coins count as ordinary income at fair market value on the distribution date, plus a 10% additional tax before 59½ unless an exception applies.
Can your first gold IRA statement stand in for the metal value?#
Yes: custodian statements value your metal near melt, without the dealer's markup, so the first statement's value per coin works as the metal value in Mode 1. A custodian statement is the account report from the trust company that holds your IRA. The CFTC and FINRA advisory (2024) says the statement "shows the 'melt' value of the metals: the total bullion weight times the metal's spot price."
After a 20% spread, a gold IRA statement shows about 80% of the price paid; after 33%, about 67%. Why a gold IRA statement shows less than you paid is explained line by line.
3. Dividing fees by the money you invested instead of the metal you own#
Fees and markups must be divided by the metal you own at the buyback price, not by the money you invested. One ranking calculator's $75,000 example shows 17.3% where the correct rise is 19.0%.
Another ranking "break-even calculator", read in a May 2026 capture (the address now redirects), compared only yearly fees with a stock fund. It left out the dealer spread, which alone needs a 30.5% rise at 23.4%. A third ranking page says its calculators "do not take into consideration management fees and other charges."
4. Leaving out the exit fees#
Closing and selling cost money too: the default schedule charges $30 to sell and $250 to close the account. That $280 adds about 0.4 points to the 10-year break-even on $100,000: without it, the 23.4% case falls from 41.3% to about 40.9%. On a $10,000 account, the same $280 weighs 10 times as much.
Exit fees vary by custodian, and transfer-out fees are a separate charge. Each custodian's charges are listed under gold IRA termination and transfer-out fees.
5. Counting free metal at its retail price#
A bonus quoted as "$10,000 of free silver" holds only about $8,613 of metal when Silver Eagles cost 16.1% over spot, so count bonus metal at its metal value. Then use the bonus-metal formula above to get the effective premium for Mode 2.
6. Trusting a buyback promise#
No gold IRA contract we read promises a buyback price, so the bid you enter is today's bid, not tomorrow's.
American Hartford Gold's Shipping and Transaction Agreement (September 2026) says: "Because applicable laws currently prohibit AHG from guaranteeing to repurchase precious metals it sells, AHG makes no such guarantee, either as to actual repurchase or as to repurchase at a particular price." The Lear Capital, Preserve Gold, Goldline and American Bullion agreements say the same.
Buyback programs are marketed as a safety net. What each contract really promises is compared in gold IRA buyback programs.
What the Break-Even Calculator Leaves Out: Taxes, Forecasts and ETFs#
The break-even calculator leaves out 4 things: income taxes on withdrawals, any forecast of the metal price, the cheaper fund route and fees paid from inside the IRA. The 4 gaps are listed below.
- Taxes: traditional gold IRA withdrawals are ordinary income, taxed at the same rates as wages; qualified Roth withdrawals are not taxed (26 U.S.C. 408A). The 28% collectibles rate, the top federal rate on collectibles sold at a gain, applies only outside an IRA (26 U.S.C. 1(h)(4)-(5)).
- Forecasts: the tool never predicts prices; the history section shows past periods only.
- Gold ETFs: gold funds charge an expense ratio, a yearly fee taken from the fund. Per their 2025-2026 10-K filings, GLDM charges 0.10%, IAU 0.25% and GLD 0.40% a year. Over 10 years, those fees need a rise of about 1.0%, 2.5% and 4.1% (SafeOunce computation, trading costs excluded). The $100,000 gold IRA cases above need 9.1% to 41.3%.
- Fees paid inside the IRA: selling metal to pay fees lowers the 10-year result by about $700 to $2,000 when metal rises.
Gold IRA taxes come after the break-even. How withdrawals are taxed from contribution to distribution is covered in gold IRA taxes.
A gold ETF is a fund that holds gold for you and trades like a stock. A fund inside an IRA you already have has almost no buying markup; the numbers are in gold IRA vs gold ETF.
Which Other Gold IRA Calculators Answer the Next Question?#
The break-even calculator tests one quote; 7 other SafeOunce tools answer what comes next, from growth after costs to deadlines and required withdrawals. The table below matches each next question to the tool that answers it.
| Your next question | Tool |
|---|---|
| What will my gold IRA be worth after costs? | Project growth after markup and fees |
| Which company publishes what? | Gold IRA company comparison tool |
| When is my 60th day? | Rollover deadline calculator |
| How much must I withdraw at 73? | Gold IRA RMD calculator |
| Can this coin go in my IRA? | IRA eligibility checker |
| How much gold, historically? | Gold allocation backtester |
| How much can I contribute in 2026? | Gold IRA contribution calculator |
Questions readers ask about the gold IRA break-even point#
The 6 short answers below cover spreads, custodians and whether a gold IRA fits your plans.
How do you calculate the gold spread?#
Calculate the gold spread in 3 steps: multiply the spot price by the coin's gold content, subtract that metal value from your price, and divide by your price. On September 29, 2026, a 1 oz Gold Eagle cost $4,280.53 against SD Bullion's own spot of $4,159.52. That gives ($4,280.53 - $4,159.52) / $4,280.53 = 2.83% of the price. The buyback spread is a separate number: (ask - bid) / ask, or 5.39% on the same coin that day.
What is the gold spread today?#
There is no single gold spread today, because each dealer sets its own. On September 29, 2026, a 1 oz Gold Eagle cost 2.69% to 8.68% over the same Kitco bid, depending on the dealer. SafeOunce publishes no live spread. Mode 1 fills in the latest spot price; add your quote to get your own spread.
Do gold IRA custodians check the price you pay?#
No: custodians process the purchase you direct, but they generally do not judge the investment or the seller. The SEC and NASAA investor alert on self-directed IRAs says custodians "generally do not evaluate the quality or legitimacy of any investment in the self-directed IRA or its promoters." What gold IRA custodians do and charge is compared separately.
What are the disadvantages of a gold IRA?#
The main disadvantages are that metal pays no interest or dividends, the dealer spread and flat fees raise the break-even point, and traditional withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income. On $100,000 over 10 years, the break-even runs from 9.1% at a 5.4% round trip to 41.3% at a 23.4% spread. The pros, cons and the real downsides are weighed separately.
Is it better to have physical gold or a gold IRA?#
It depends on the money you use: gold bought with IRA money stays tax-deferred but carries custodian fees. Coins you buy with taxed savings have no custodian fees. Their gains count as collectible gains when sold, taxed at up to 28% (26 U.S.C. 1(h)). Costs, taxes and access are compared in gold IRA vs physical gold.
Should you roll your 401(k) into a gold IRA?#
A rollover fits only the part of your savings you can leave in metal for years. Run the quote through a break-even test first, and price the 401(k) protections you give up. At a 23.4% spread, gold must rise 37.0% before a sale gets you even, before any fees. The plan protections and the rollover steps are in 401(k) to gold IRA rollover.