Gold IRA returns follow the gold price, which grew 9.0% a year from the end of 1970 to the end of 2025. A gold IRA keeps less than that, because you pay a dealer markup and yearly fees. The dealer markup is the percent a dealer charges above the metal's market price. So what did real savers actually keep, and does it matter when they started?
A gold IRA holds physical, IRA-eligible gold in a vault, so its return is the metal's price change with nothing added: no interest and no dividends. This page gives gold's return for every year since 1971 and for 12 different start dates. It shows what $10,000 in gold from 2006 became before and after gold IRA costs, how often 10-year holdings lost money, and how 2026 has gone so far.
SafeOunce sells no metal. We computed every return below ourselves from LBMA year-end fixings, Damodaran's NYU Stern dataset and federal CPI data, and we show each one before and after costs. Each figure is a compound return: the one steady yearly rate that turns the starting sum into the ending sum.
What Are Gold IRA Returns?#
A gold IRA return is the change in value of the gold your IRA owns, minus what you paid above market price and the yearly custodian and storage fees. The custodian is the trust company that holds the IRA and arranges the vault that stores the metal.
Three things decide what a gold IRA returns, as listed below.
- Gold price over your holding period: the price on the day you buy and on the day you sell, so your start and end dates matter most.
- Markup and spread: the markup is what you pay above the market price when you buy. The spread is the full gap between the dealer's selling price and its buy-back price, which includes the discount when you sell.
- Yearly fees: published metals custodians charged about $215 to $656 a year on a $50,000 account, as of September 2026.
Gold pays no interest or dividends, so its total return equals its price return. Total return means the price change plus any income paid out; for gold, the income part is zero. Does a gold IRA pay interest, then? No: its only return is the gold price change minus costs.
Why a gold IRA earns less than the gold price#
A gold IRA earns less than the gold price because you buy above the market price, sell below it, and pay fees every year whether gold rises or falls. The table below shows where each cost comes out, as of September 2026.
| Stage | What it costs | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| Buying | About 5%-7% round trip on a 1 oz bullion coin (5.39% at one online dealer). The CFTC's benchmark: bullion 5%-10% over spot, numismatic coins 40%-200% over spot | One online dealer's published prices, September 29, 2026; CFTC advisory 8215-20, August 4, 2020 |
| Holding | $215 to $656 a year on a $50,000 account | Published metals custodian fee schedules, September 2026 |
| Selling | The dealer's buy-back (bid) price sits below spot | Included in the round trip above |
A round trip is what you lose if you buy a coin and sell it straight back to the same dealer. The bid is the dealer's buy-back price. Numismatic coins are coins sold for rarity or collector value, and they carry far bigger markups than plain bullion.
Gold IRA markups differ far more from dealer to dealer than custodian fees do. How dealers set gold IRA markups and spreads decides most of the gap between gold's return and yours.
The gap shows up on day one. Your first custodian statement values the metal at spot or bid, so it shows less than you paid.
Which gold price the numbers use: the LBMA fixing#
Every gold return on this page uses the LBMA Gold Price PM, the benchmark set by auction in London at 3:00 p.m. each business day. We take the last fixing of each year. A fixing is one agreed benchmark price, while the spot price is the live market price that moves all day.
The LBMA Gold Price is set twice a day, at 10:30 and 15:00 London time, and ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA) administers it. Our gold column matches Damodaran's independent series within 0.1 point in nearly every year. Damodaran starts his gold series in 1971 because, in his words, "Prior to 1971, gold prices were fixed." Our series starts from the London price at the end of 1970, $37.38 an ounce. LBMA stands for the London Bullion Market Association, and the LBMA Gold Price is administered by IBA.
LBMA's price page states: "A licence from IBA is required in order to obtain, use or redistribute real-time or historical benchmark data."
What Is the Average Annual Return on Gold? 9.0% a Year Since 1971#
Gold returned 9.0% a year compounded from the end of 1970 to the end of 2025, using LBMA PM year-end prices, or 5.0% a year after inflation. Over the same 55 years, US stocks with dividends returned 11.1% a year and 10-year Treasury bonds 6.0%.
The table compares the 6 main assets over the same 55 years, before costs and taxes.
| Asset, 1971-2025 | Return per year | After inflation | $10,000 became |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 9.0% | 5.0% | $1,168,486 |
| Silver | 7.1% | 3.1% | about $441,000 |
| Platinum | 5.3% | 1.3% | about $168,000 |
| S&P 500 with dividends | 11.1% | 7.0% | $3,295,863 |
| 10-year Treasury bond | 6.0% | 2.0% | about $242,000 |
| CPI inflation | 3.9% | 0% (the benchmark) | about $81,000 buys what $10,000 did in 1970 |
Before costs and taxes. Gold, silver: LBMA year-end; platinum: World Bank monthly averages before 1991, LBMA PM after; stocks and bonds: Damodaran (NYU Stern); CPI: FRED CPI-U. SafeOunce computation.
A gold IRA holder earned less than gold's 9.0%. The markups and fees further down this page show by how much.
Compound vs average: the 2.7-point trap#
The average of gold's yearly returns overstates what you earned: from 1971 to 2022 the simple average was 10.42% a year, but money in gold grew 7.75% a year. The simple (arithmetic) average adds up each year's return and divides by the number of years. The compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, is the one steady rate that turns your starting money into your ending money. "Annualized" means a return stated this way, per year.
Why does the average run higher? If gold rises 50% one year and falls 50% the next, the average is 0%, but $100 becomes $75. Big swings pull the compound rate below the average, and gold swings a lot.
Treat any gold "average return" that lacks the word "compound" or "annualized" as the higher simple average. Two of the data pages ranking for "gold returns by year" in September 2026 quote a "mean" or "average" without saying which kind. Money.com's long-term review (read in September 2026) gives 7.78% a year for 1971 to 2022, which matches the compound rate.
Gold's return after inflation#
After inflation, gold returned 5.0% a year from 1971 to 2025, more than 10-year Treasury bonds (2.0%) and less than US stocks with dividends (7.0%). A real return is what is left after inflation. Inflation here is the CPI, the government's consumer price index (FRED CPI-U).
Gold did not protect savers in the 2021-2022 price surge. It returned -4.3% in 2021, when the CPI rose 7.0%. In 2022 it returned +0.4%, when the CPI rose 6.5%. Since 1980, gold beat inflation in only 1 of the 5 years when the CPI rose more than 5% (1980).
Erb and Harvey reached the same verdict in "The Golden Dilemma" (Financial Analysts Journal 69(4), 2013; NBER Working Paper 18706): "Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge."
Gold as an inflation hedge worked best in the 1970s, beating inflation by 24.3% a year from 1971 to 1979. It then lost to inflation in the 1980s and the 1990s. The full record of gold as an inflation hedge, year by year, is on its own page.
How gold's returns compare with stocks and bonds#
Gold's returns beat US stocks only from certain start dates. From 2000 to 2025 gold returned 11.0% a year against 8.0% for stocks. From 1981 it returned only 4.6% a year against 11.7%.
Over the full 55 years from 1971 to 2025, stocks won: 11.1% a year against gold's 9.0%. Stocks here means the S&P 500 index of large US companies, with dividends reinvested. Gold beat 10-year Treasury bonds over the same years, 9.0% against 6.0%.
Gold's yearly returns had a correlation of -0.16 with stocks from 1971 to 2025. Correlation measures whether two assets move together, on a scale from -1 to +1, and -0.16 means mostly unrelated. The link has drifted: from 2016 to 2025 the correlation was +0.29.
In the 11 years the S&P 500 fell from 1971 to 2025, gold rose in 7. In 2018 and 2022, when stocks fell and 10-year Treasuries did not gain, gold returned -0.9% and +0.4%. The contest of gold vs the S&P 500 since 1971 changes with every start date. Rolling periods and drawdowns for gold vs the S&P 500 since 1971 are compared side by side.
Gold Returns by Year, 1971 to 2026#
Gold rose in 36 of the 55 years from 1971 to 2025 and fell in 19, with yearly returns ranging from +126.5% in 1979 to -32.6% in 1981. The table below lists each year's return for gold, gold after inflation, silver, platinum, US stocks, 10-year Treasuries and inflation.
| Year | Gold | Gold real | Silver | Platinum | S&P 500 TR | 10y Treasury | CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1971 | +16.7% | +13.0% | -16.0% | -7.5% | +14.2% | +9.8% | +3.3% |
| 1972 | +48.8% | +43.9% | +48.1% | +8.2% | +18.8% | +2.8% | +3.4% |
| 1973 | +73.0% | +59.1% | +60.3% | +21.1% | -14.3% | +3.7% | +8.7% |
| 1974 | +66.1% | +47.9% | +37.4% | +21.5% | -25.9% | +2.0% | +12.3% |
| 1975 | -24.8% | -29.7% | -6.6% | -17.9% | +37.0% | +3.6% | +6.9% |
| 1976 | -4.1% | -8.5% | +4.2% | -5.0% | +23.8% | +16.0% | +4.9% |
| 1977 | +22.6% | +14.9% | +9.2% | +16.7% | -7.0% | +1.3% | +6.7% |
| 1978 | +37.0% | +25.7% | +26.6% | +92.0% | +6.5% | -0.8% | +9.0% |
| 1979 | +126.5% | +100.0% | +434.8% | +76.4% | +18.5% | +0.7% | +13.3% |
| 1980 | +15.2% | +2.4% | -51.9% | +0.6% | +31.7% | -3.0% | +12.5% |
| 1981 | -32.6% | -38.1% | -47.4% | -33.9% | -4.7% | +8.2% | +8.9% |
| 1982 | +14.9% | +10.7% | +33.3% | -7.7% | +20.4% | +32.8% | +3.8% |
| 1983 | -16.3% | -19.4% | -18.0% | +6.6% | +22.3% | +3.2% | +3.8% |
| 1984 | -19.4% | -22.4% | -29.4% | -22.7% | +6.1% | +13.7% | +3.9% |
| 1985 | +6.0% | +2.1% | -7.8% | +10.7% | +31.2% | +25.7% | +3.8% |
| 1986 | +19.0% | +17.7% | -8.9% | +42.7% | +18.5% | +24.3% | +1.1% |
| 1987 | +24.5% | +19.2% | +26.9% | +4.1% | +5.8% | -5.0% | +4.4% |
| 1988 | -15.3% | -18.8% | -9.7% | +12.8% | +16.5% | +8.2% | +4.4% |
| 1989 | -2.8% | -7.2% | -13.8% | -10.2% | +31.5% | +17.7% | +4.6% |
| 1990 | -3.1% | -8.7% | -19.6% | -17.1% | -3.1% | +6.2% | +6.1% |
| 1991 | -8.6% | -11.3% | -7.9% | -21.0% | +30.2% | +15.0% | +3.1% |
| 1992 | -5.7% | -8.4% | -4.9% | +6.9% | +7.5% | +9.4% | +2.9% |
| 1993 | +17.7% | +14.5% | +39.4% | +10.9% | +10.0% | +14.2% | +2.7% |
| 1994 | -2.2% | -4.7% | -5.2% | +6.4% | +1.3% | -8.0% | +2.7% |
| 1995 | +1.0% | -1.5% | +6.0% | -3.9% | +37.2% | +23.5% | +2.5% |
| 1996 | -4.6% | -7.7% | -6.7% | -8.2% | +22.7% | +1.4% | +3.3% |
| 1997 | -21.4% | -22.7% | +24.9% | -1.8% | +33.1% | +9.9% | +1.7% |
| 1998 | -0.8% | -2.4% | -16.5% | -0.8% | +28.3% | +14.9% | +1.6% |
| 1999 | +0.9% | -1.8% | +6.5% | +23.0% | +20.9% | -8.3% | +2.7% |
| 2000 | -5.4% | -8.5% | -14.2% | +39.7% | -9.0% | +16.7% | +3.4% |
| 2001 | +0.7% | -0.8% | -1.2% | -22.5% | -11.8% | +5.6% | +1.6% |
| 2002 | +25.6% | +22.7% | +3.2% | +24.6% | -22.0% | +15.1% | +2.4% |
| 2003 | +19.9% | +17.7% | +27.9% | +36.0% | +28.4% | +0.4% | +1.9% |
| 2004 | +4.6% | +1.3% | +14.2% | +5.7% | +10.7% | +4.5% | +3.3% |
| 2005 | +17.8% | +13.9% | +29.6% | +12.3% | +4.8% | +2.9% | +3.4% |
| 2006 | +23.2% | +20.1% | +46.1% | +15.9% | +15.6% | +2.0% | +2.5% |
| 2007 | +31.9% | +26.7% | +14.4% | +36.9% | +5.5% | +10.2% | +4.1% |
| 2008 | +4.3% | +4.2% | -26.9% | -41.3% | -36.6% | +20.1% | +0.1% |
| 2009 | +25.0% | +21.7% | +57.5% | +62.7% | +25.9% | -11.1% | +2.7% |
| 2010 | +29.2% | +27.3% | +80.3% | +20.1% | +14.8% | +8.5% | +1.5% |
| 2011 | +8.9% | +5.8% | -8.0% | -22.8% | +2.1% | +16.0% | +3.0% |
| 2012 | +8.3% | +6.4% | +6.3% | +12.8% | +15.9% | +3.0% | +1.7% |
| 2013 | -27.3% | -28.4% | -34.9% | -11.1% | +32.1% | -9.1% | +1.5% |
| 2014 | +0.1% | -0.6% | -18.1% | -11.1% | +13.5% | +10.7% | +0.8% |
| 2015 | -12.1% | -12.7% | -13.5% | -28.0% | +1.4% | +1.3% | +0.7% |
| 2016 | +8.1% | +5.9% | +17.5% | +3.5% | +11.8% | +0.7% | +2.1% |
| 2017 | +12.7% | +10.3% | +3.8% | +3.0% | +21.6% | +2.8% | +2.1% |
| 2018 | -0.9% | -2.8% | -8.3% | -14.8% | -4.2% | 0.0% | +1.9% |
| 2019 | +18.4% | +15.8% | +16.7% | +20.8% | +31.2% | +9.6% | +2.3% |
| 2020 | +24.6% | +22.9% | +46.8% | +12.2% | +18.0% | +11.3% | +1.4% |
| 2021 | -4.3% | -10.6% | -12.8% | -10.2% | +28.5% | -4.4% | +7.0% |
| 2022 | +0.4% | -5.7% | +3.7% | +7.5% | -18.0% | -17.8% | +6.5% |
| 2023 | +14.6% | +10.9% | -0.6% | -3.0% | +26.1% | +3.9% | +3.4% |
| 2024 | +25.5% | +22.0% | +21.5% | -8.7% | +24.9% | -1.6% | +2.9% |
| 2025 | +67.4% | +63.0% | +149.1% | +143.8% | +17.7% | +7.8% | +2.7% |
| 2026 to Sept 28 | -5.1% | n/a | -14.8% | -22.2% | n/a (price index +12.2%, dividends excluded) | n/a | +3.4% (Dec 2025 to Aug 2026) |
Gold: LBMA Gold Price PM, last fixing of each year (the 2025 year ends with the December 30, 2025 fixing). Silver: LBMA Silver Price. Platinum: World Bank December averages to 1990, LBMA Platinum PM after. S&P 500 TR (total return, with dividends) and 10-year Treasury: Damodaran, NYU Stern. CPI: FRED CPI-U, December to December. Gold real: gold's return after CPI inflation. The 2026 S&P 500 figure is the FRED price index, without dividends. Computed by SafeOunce; not LBMA data.
Read the "Gold real" column to see whether gold beat inflation in a given year. The last row is year to date, meaning from the last fixing of 2025 to September 28, 2026.
Gold's best and worst years#
Gold's 5 best years were 1979, 1973, 2025, 1974 and 1972, and its 5 worst were 1981, 2013, 1975, 1997 and 1984. Four of the 5 best years came in the 1970s, soon after the US closed its gold window on August 15, 1971 and stopped fixing an official gold price.
Gold's 5 best years since 1971 are listed below (LBMA PM year-end).
- 1979: +126.5%
- 1973: +73.0%
- 2025: +67.4%
- 1974: +66.1%
- 1972: +48.8%
Gold's 5 worst years since 1971 are listed below.
- 1981: -32.6%
- 2013: -27.3%
- 1975: -24.8%
- 1997: -21.4%
- 1984: -19.4%
Gold's worst years were mostly good years for stocks: in 4 of the 5, US stocks with dividends rose. In 2013, gold fell 27.3% while stocks rose 32.1%.
How gold did in 2025 and 2026#
Gold returned 67.4% in 2025 on LBMA PM fixings. It then fell 26.1% from its record of $5,405.00 on January 29, 2026 to $3,993.55 on July 16. On September 28, 2026, gold was down 5.1% for the year. Year to date means since the last fixing of 2025, and peak to trough means from the highest fixing to the lowest one after it.
The table shows 2026 so far for each IRA metal, on LBMA fixings, as of September 28, 2026.
| Metal | End of 2025 | Sept 28, 2026 | 2026 to date | 2026 high fixing | 2026 low fixing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,367.80 | $4,144.55 | -5.1% | $5,405.00 (Jan 29) | $3,993.55 (Jul 16) |
| Silver | $71.99 | $61.33 | -14.8% | $118.45 (Jan 29) | $55.29 (Jul 17) |
| Platinum | $2,226.00 | $1,731.85 | -22.2% | $2,811.00 (Jan 26) | $1,567.00 (Jun 30) |
| Palladium | $1,660.00 | $1,219.25 | -26.6% | n/a | n/a |
Gold's 2025 return depends on the series you use. The iShares Gold Trust 10-K, which uses the LBMA AM price, gives +65.0%. Damodaran's year-end series shows +66.2%. There was no PM fixing on December 31, 2025, so our 2025 ends with the December 30 fixing of $4,367.80.
The speed of the 2026 fall also depends on the price used. Gold's PM fixing first fell 20% below the record on June 8, 2026, at $4,320.60. A Money.com report (June 2026) counted "91 days" to a 20% decline, measured from an intraday high. The causes of the 2026 fall are not established from primary sources, so this page does not explain them, and it makes no forecast.
Gold returns by decade#
Gold and stocks took turns: gold won the 1970s, the 2000s and 2020-2025, and stocks won the 1980s, 1990s and 2010s by wide margins. The table gives each period's yearly return, before costs.
| Period | Gold | S&P 500 TR | CPI | Gold real |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1971-1979 | 33.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 24.3% |
| 1980-1989 | -2.5% | 17.3% | 5.1% | -7.2% |
| 1990-1999 | -3.1% | 18.0% | 2.9% | -5.9% |
| 2000-2009 | 14.1% | -1.0% | 2.5% | 11.3% |
| 2010-2019 | 3.4% | 13.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| 2020-2025 | 19.3% | 14.9% | 3.9% | 14.8% |
Compound yearly returns. Gold: LBMA PM year-end; S&P 500 with dividends: Damodaran (NYU Stern); CPI: FRED CPI-U. SafeOunce computation.
Gold lost money after inflation in both the 1980s and the 1990s, while stocks compounded above 17% a year in each.
Gold IRA Historical Returns by Start Date#
Gold's historical return depends mostly on the year you start: 4.6% a year from the end of 1980, but 11.0% a year from the end of 1999, both through 2025. $10,000 put into gold at the end of 1980 grew to $74,062 by the end of 2025, while $10,000 from the end of 1999 grew to $150,484.
The table compares gold with US stocks for 12 start dates, all ending in 2025. The start date is the year-end when the money went in, so "1981-2025" means invested at the end of 1980 and held through the end of 2025.
| Period | Gold | Gold real | S&P 500 TR | $10,000 in gold | $10,000 in S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1971-2025 | 9.0% | 5.0% | 11.1% | $1,168,486 | $3,295,863 |
| 1976-2025 | 7.1% | 3.4% | 11.9% | $311,430 | $2,793,293 |
| 1980-2025 | 4.8% | 1.5% | 12.1% | $85,309 | $1,921,021 |
| 1981-2025 | 4.6% | 1.5% | 11.7% | $74,062 | $1,458,244 |
| 1986-2025 | 6.7% | 3.8% | 11.4% | $133,654 | $745,659 |
| 1991-2025 | 7.2% | 4.5% | 11.1% | $113,097 | $400,417 |
| 1996-2025 | 8.4% | 5.7% | 10.3% | $112,863 | $187,103 |
| 2000-2025 | 11.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | $150,484 | $73,856 |
| 2006-2025 | 11.3% | 8.6% | 10.9% | $85,142 | $79,205 |
| 2011-2025 | 7.9% | 5.1% | 13.9% | $31,076 | $70,790 |
| 2016-2025 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 14.7% | $41,206 | $39,339 |
| 2021-2025 | 18.3% | 13.2% | 14.3% | $23,139 | $19,514 |
"1981-2025" means invested at the end of 1980 and held through the end of 2025. Before costs and taxes. Gold: LBMA PM year-end; S&P 500 with dividends: Damodaran (NYU Stern); real returns use FRED CPI-U. SafeOunce computation.
Gold beat stocks in 4 of these 12 periods, all starting in 2000 or later. Stocks won every period that started before 2000.
Savers who add money each year see the same pattern. As an illustration, $7,000 put in at the start of each year from 2016 to 2025 grew to $199,713 in gold, against $165,505 in the S&P 500 with dividends. From 2006 to 2025 it grew to $518,535 in gold, against $642,495 in stocks. These figures are before costs, and $7,000 is only an example: the 2026 IRA limit is $7,500 (IRS Notice 2025-67).
Why the start year decides the result#
The start year decides gold's result because gold spent long stretches falling: after its January 1980 peak of $850.00, it took 28 years to return to that price.
Gold fell 70.3% from $850.00 on January 21, 1980 to $252.80 on July 20, 1999. It did not regain $850 until January 3, 2008. The next peak, $1,895.00 on September 5, 2011, led to a 44.6% fall to $1,049.40 on December 17, 2015. That peak price came back on July 24, 2020, 8.9 years after it was set.
So has gold been a good investment over the long term? It depends on when you bought: yes from 1971 or 2000, poorly for buyers at the 1980 and 2011 peaks. From the end of 2010, gold grew 7.9% a year but trailed stocks at 13.9%. The same metal gave a 9.0% yearly return from 1971 and a 4.6% yearly return from the end of 1980.
What was the average 10-year return on gold?#
Across all 46 ten-year periods from 1971 to 2025, gold's middle (median) return was 4.8% a year, ranging from -5.0% a year (1988-1997) to 31.8% a year (1971-1980). The median is the middle result when all periods are lined up from worst to best. A rolling window is every overlapping period of the same length: 1971-1980, 1972-1981 and so on.
The table gives the same counts for 5-, 10- and 20-year windows, before costs.
| Window | Periods | Gold worst | Gold median | Gold best | Gold lost money | Gold lost to inflation | Gold beat S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | 51 | -11.1% | 6.7% | 33.3% | 15 | 21 | 20 |
| 10 years | 46 | -5.0% | 4.8% | 31.8% | 10 | 19 | 14 |
| 20 years | 36 | -3.8% | 5.8% | 12.4% | 4 | 13 | 8 |
Calendar-year windows from 1971 to 2025, LBMA PM year-end, compound returns per year. S&P 500 with dividends (Damodaran); inflation: FRED CPI-U. SafeOunce computation.
In roughly 1 of every 5 ten-year stretches, gold ended with fewer dollars than it started with (10 of 46). All 10 losing decades started between 1980 and 1992. Gold also lost to inflation in 19 of the 46, while US stocks with dividends lost to inflation in 5.
What happened after gold's biggest up-years#
A big year for gold has not predicted the years after it. Gold rose 25% or more in 9 years from 1971 to 2020, and gains followed in 7 of them. The 2 losses came after the 1980 and 2011 peaks.
The table shows every year gold rose 25% or more and the 5 years that followed (LBMA PM year-end).
| Big year | Gold that year | Next 5 years, per year |
|---|---|---|
| 1972 | +48.8% | +20.5% |
| 1973 | +73.0% | +15.0% |
| 1974 | +66.1% | +22.4% |
| 1978 | +37.0% | +11.1% |
| 1979 | +126.5% | -9.6% |
| 2002 | +25.6% | +19.1% |
| 2007 | +31.9% | +14.7% |
| 2009 | +25.0% | +2.1% |
| 2010 | +29.2% | -5.5% |
Compound yearly return over the 5 calendar years after each big year. 2024 (+25.5%) and 2025 (+67.4%) do not yet have 5 years of data. SafeOunce computation.
After a record year, the history is mixed. Gold's 67.4% gain in 2025 says nothing certain about 2026 to 2030, and this page makes no forecast.
What If You Invested $10,000 in Gold 20 Years Ago?#
$10,000 of gold bought at the LBMA PM price of $603.00 on September 28, 2006 was worth about $68,732 on September 28, 2026. Inside a low-cost gold IRA, the same $10,000 would have ended near $49,929. At a 30% markup it ended at about $37,529.
A premium is the amount you pay above the gold price, the same thing as the markup. A proof coin is a specially struck, polished collector coin that sells at a high premium and buys back for less. The table compares 5 ways the same $10,000 could have been held over those 20 years.
| Scenario, Sept 28, 2006 to Sept 28, 2026 | Ending value | Per year |
|---|---|---|
| Gold at spot, no costs | $68,732 | 10.1% |
| Gold IRA, 5% premium, $250 a year | $49,929 (12.17 oz left) | 8.4% |
| Gold IRA, 30% premium, $250 a year | $37,529 | about 6.8% |
| Proof coins, 30% premium, $250 a year, fees and final sale at 10% below spot | $32,794 | about 6.1% |
| Silver at spot ($11.66 to $61.33), no costs | $52,599 | about 8.7% |
SafeOunce computation from LBMA fixings; past results, not a forecast.
The gold IRA rows use five assumptions, listed below.
- Setup fee: $50 at the start.
- Premium: paid once, on the purchase.
- Yearly fee: $250 for custodian and storage, paid by selling metal on each fee anniversary (the yearly billing date) at 1% below spot. The proof-coin row sells at 10% below spot instead.
- Final sale: at 1% below spot on September 28, 2026 (10% below for proof coins).
- Taxes and fee changes: no taxes, because the money stays inside the IRA, and the same flat $250 fee for all 20 years.
Flat fees matter more for small gold IRAs. A $250 yearly fee is 2.5% of a $10,000 account but only 0.5% of a $50,000 one.
$10,000 in gold over 10, 20 and 30 years#
Before costs, $10,000 in gold grew to $31,339 over the 10 years to September 28, 2026, $68,732 over 20 years and $108,867 over 30 years. The table compares gold with silver, platinum and the S&P 500 over the same three periods, before costs.
| Asset | 10 years (from Sept 28, 2016) | 20 years (from Sept 28, 2006) | 30 years (from Sept 27, 1996) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $31,339 | $68,732 | $108,867 |
| Silver | $32,076 | $52,599 | $126,506 |
| Platinum | $17,012 | $15,060 | $45,130 |
| S&P 500, price only | $35,386 | $57,389 | $111,976 |
All values on September 28, 2026. Gold start fixings: $1,322.50 (2016), $603.00 (2006), $380.70 (1996), LBMA PM. SafeOunce computation; before costs.
The S&P 500 row excludes dividends, so stocks did better than shown. Gold, silver and platinum pay nothing, so their rows are complete before costs.
What if you invested $1,000 in gold 10 years ago?#
$1,000 of gold bought on September 28, 2016 at $1,322.50 was worth about $3,134 on September 28, 2026, before any costs. $1,000 bought at the last LBMA PM fixing of 2010 ($1,405.50) was worth about $2,949 on the same date. On sums this small, a flat $250 yearly fee would equal 25% of the $1,000 every year.
How Much Do Markups and Fees Cut Gold IRA Returns?#
Markups cut gold IRA returns far more than yearly fees do. From 2016 to 2025, a 20% markup plus fees lowered a $100,000 gold IRA's return from 15.2% to 12.9% a year. The markup alone cost about $68,000; the yearly fees cost $2,750.
Break-even is the rise in the gold price you need before selling gets your money back. The bid gap is how far the dealer's buy-back price sits below its own cost. Including the bid gap used in dealer agreement examples (about 4.7%), gold must rise about 10.4% to break even after a 5% spread. After a spread of about 20%, it must rise about 31.1%.
A gold ETF, a fund that holds gold and trades like a stock, is the cheapest route to the gold price alone. GLDM charges 0.10% a year as of September 2026, a charge called the expense ratio. On $100,000 held 10 years at a flat gold price, SafeOunce's cost comparison puts GLDM at about $1,035 and a low-cost gold IRA at $6,341. A 10% spread route costs $16,521 and a 23.4% spread $29,293, and that 23.4% spread alone equals 234 years of GLDM fees.
Any gold IRA calculator is only as good as its cost inputs. To test other markups and fees against real history, use the gold IRA calculator that projects growth after markup and fees.
What the markup took from gold's best decade#
$100,000 in gold at the end of 2015 grew to $412,057 by the end of 2025 with no costs, but to $337,027 after a 20% markup and fees. That decade was one of gold's best: 15.2% a year on LBMA PM year-end prices.
The table shows the same $100,000 at 6 markup levels. Every row except the first also pays $50 setup and $250 a year.
| Markup | Troy ounces bought | Net value on Dec 31, 2025 | Per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% (spot, no costs) | 94.34 | $412,057 | 15.2% |
| 2% | 92.44 | $396,987 | 14.8% |
| 5% | 89.80 | $385,566 | 14.4% |
| 10% | 85.72 | $367,916 | 13.9% |
| 20% | 78.58 | $337,027 | 12.9% |
| 30% | 72.53 | $310,890 | 12.0% |
$50 setup; $250 a year, charged at opening and on each anniversary through the sale (11 fees, $2,750); sold at 1% below spot; LBMA PM year-end; SafeOunce computation. A troy ounce, the unit for precious metals, is 31.1 grams, a little heavier than a kitchen ounce.
Real spreads can reach that level. Lear Capital's own 2022 average spread was 23.4%, stated in its Chapter 11 plan filed June 5, 2023. That is one company's figure, not an industry average.
The markup you accept sets how much metal must rise to cover the markup before you gain anything. Before you buy, check how much metal must rise to cover the markup on your own quote.
How often a 10-year gold IRA lost money#
Across 41 ten-year holding periods, invested at year-ends 1975 to 2015, $100,000 in gold lost money 10 times with no costs, but 21 times at a 23.4% spread. The table shows the same periods, plus 46 five-year periods, at 5 cost levels.
| Cost level | 10-year losses (of 41) | 5-year losses (of 46) | Median 10-year ending value |
|---|---|---|---|
| No costs | 10 (24%) | 15 | $139,287 |
| Fees only ($285 a year + $50 setup + $280 exit) | 11 (27%) | 16 | $136,107 |
| 5.4% round trip + fees | 13 (32%) | 20 | $128,586 |
| 23.4% spread + 4.6875% bid gap + fees | 21 (51%) | 26 | $98,513 |
| 39.99% spread + fees | 25 (61%) | 33 | $76,488 |
$100,000 invested; LBMA PM year-end. Fees from Equity Trust's precious-metals-only fee schedule FS-0004-05 Rev. 081726. Spread levels come from published sources: one dealer's 1 oz coin prices (September 2026), Lear Capital's 2022 average (Chapter 11 plan, 2023) and a published contract cap for exclusive coins (September 2026). SafeOunce computation; past results, not a forecast.
With a high markup, a 10-year gold IRA has lost money about as often as it has made money. The worst 10 years were 1988-1997 (invested at the end of 1987): $100,000 ended at $59,946 with no costs and $40,586 at a 23.4% spread. Shorter holds did worse: at a 39.99% spread, 33 of 46 five-year holds lost money.
A gold IRA opened in January 2026#
A $100,000 gold IRA opened on January 5, 2026 at a 5% markup was worth about $87,394 on September 28, 2026. That is a 12.6% loss in 9 months, while the gold price fell 7.0%. Gold's LBMA PM price was $4,456.40 on the opening day and $4,144.55 on September 28. The account also pays $250 a year in fees.
The gap between -12.6% and -7.0% is the markup, the dealer's lower buy-back price and the first year's fees. A buyer on the record day, January 29, 2026, needs gold at $5,733 to break even after a 5% markup, or $6,552 after 20% (selling 1% below spot, before fees). Neither price had been reached by September 28, 2026.
Your first gold IRA statement values the metal at spot or bid, so it shows less than the invoice. Why your gold IRA statement shows less than you paid is a matter of valuation.
How Risky Have Gold IRA Returns Been? Swings, Drops and Recovery Times#
Gold's yearly returns swung more than stocks' from 1971 to 2025, with a volatility of 27.1% against 16.9%, and gold fell in 19 of 55 years against 11 for stocks. Volatility is how far a typical year strays from the average year (the standard deviation). Since 1991 the gap has nearly closed: 17.6% for gold against 17.2% for stocks.
The table compares gold's risk with US stocks with dividends.
| Measure | Gold | S&P 500 TR |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility, 1971-2025 | 27.1% | 16.9% |
| Volatility, 1991-2025 | 17.6% | 17.2% |
| Down years, 1971-2025 (of 55) | 19 | 11 |
| Worst year | -32.6% (1981) | -36.6% (2008) |
Gold: LBMA PM year-end; S&P 500 with dividends: Damodaran (NYU Stern). SafeOunce computation.
A drawdown is a fall from a peak to a later low, and recovery time is how long the price took to get back to that peak. Gold's deepest drawdown was 70.3%, from 1980 to 1999, and it took 28.0 years to regain the 1980 peak in dollars. The 44.6% fall of 2011-2015 took 8.9 years to recover. The 26.1% fall of 2026 had not recovered as of September 28, 2026.
After inflation, the wait was far longer. The January 1980 peak of $850.00 equals $3,660 in August 2026 dollars. Gold regained that buying power only on September 3, 2025, 45.6 years later.
How long recovery took also depends on the price you paid. A buyer at the 2011 peak who paid a 20% markup needed gold at $2,297 to break even. The LBMA PM price first reached that level on April 5, 2024, 12.6 years later. Every major drop and how long recovery took for gold and silver are listed separately.
Silver, Platinum and Palladium IRA Returns Compared#
From 1971 to 2025, silver returned 7.1% a year and platinum 5.3%, both less than gold's 9.0%, with far bigger swings. Palladium has LBMA prices only from 1990, so its return since 1971 is not measured here. Platinum and palladium belong to the platinum group metals (PGMs), a family of rare industrial precious metals.
The table compares the 4 IRA metals on the same measures, before costs.
| Metal | Return 1971-2025 | Volatility | Down years | Worst fall | 2026 to Sept 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 9.0% | 27.1% | 19 of 55 | -70.3% (1980-1999) | -5.1% |
| Silver IRA | 7.1% | 66.3% | 26 of 55 | -92.8% (1980-1991) | -14.8% |
| Platinum IRA | 5.3% (World Bank averages before 1991) | 31.2% | 23 of 55 | -73.9% (2008-2020) | -22.2% |
| Palladium IRA | n/a (LBMA data from 1990) | 44.7% (1991-2025) | n/a | -86.4% (2001-2003) | -26.6% |
Returns and volatility from year-end prices; worst falls from daily LBMA fixings. Platinum before 1991: World Bank monthly averages. SafeOunce computation.
Silver's 1980 peak of $49.45 was not regained until October 9, 2025, and after inflation silver was still 71.2% below that peak on September 28, 2026. Platinum regained its 2008 peak of $2,273 on January 6, 2026, 17.8 years later. The choice of a gold vs silver IRA is mostly a choice about how much swing you can live with. The trade-offs of a gold vs silver IRA in volatility and storage cost are compared separately.
How Taxes and RMDs Change Gold IRA Returns#
Every return on this page is before tax, and inside a traditional gold IRA the withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income, not at the 28% collectibles rate. Ordinary income is taxed at the same rates as wages. The collectibles rate is a maximum 28% rate on long-term gains from coins and bullion held outside an IRA.
Three tax rules shape what a gold IRA return is worth to you, as listed below.
- Traditional IRA: withdrawals are ordinary income (IRS Publication 590-B). The 28% collectibles cap in 26 U.S.C. 1(h)(4)-(5) applies only to gold held outside an IRA.
- Roth IRA: qualified withdrawals are tax-free (26 U.S.C. 408A).
- Required minimum distributions (RMDs): yearly minimum withdrawals from a traditional IRA start at 73 for people born 1951-1958 and at 75 for people born 1960 or later (26 U.S.C. 401(a)(9)(C)(v)). For people born in 1959, the age is 73 under proposed IRS regulations (REG-103529-23), which are not final.
The Uniform Lifetime Table is the IRS table of divisors in Publication 590-B and Treas. Reg. 1.401(a)(9)-9, in force since 2022. Its divisor at age 75 is 24.6. A falling gold price forces you to sell more ounces, because required minimum distributions are based on last year-end's value. The required minimum distributions from a gold IRA can be paid in cash or in coins.
An in-kind distribution means taking the coins out of the IRA instead of cash. It avoids a forced sale, but the coins still count at their fair market value on the day they leave the IRA.
Two savers with the same gold can keep different amounts, because every table here is pre-tax. A Roth owner keeps a qualified withdrawal whole, while a traditional IRA owner pays income tax on it.
Gold IRA taxes also change the comparison with gold held outside an IRA. How gold IRA taxes work from contribution to withdrawal is covered step by step.
What Can Gold's Past Returns Tell You About a Gold IRA Today?#
Gold's past returns show the range of outcomes, from 31.8% a year to a 5.0% yearly loss over a decade, but they do not predict the next 20 years. Whether the history makes a gold IRA right for you depends on your costs, your timing and how much of your savings is in metal. For retirees, the order in which good and bad years arrive, called sequence-of-returns risk, matters too.
SafeOunce tested the highest yearly withdrawal, raised with inflation, that lasted 30 years. The worst year to retire since 1971 was 1973. For a 1973 retiree, that rate rose from 4.2% for a 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) to 4.9% with 10% gold and 5.5% with 20% gold. The typical (median) rate fell with gold, from 7.5% to 7.2% and 6.8%. Gold IRA costs trimmed the 1973 gain from a 10% gold slice but did not erase it.
The table sums up what the record on this page showed for 5 common situations. It describes history, not advice.
| Your situation | What the record showed | Where on this page |
|---|---|---|
| Quoted markup of 20% or more | 10-year holds lost money in 21 of 41 periods at a 23.4% spread | How often a 10-year gold IRA lost money |
| Small account (under $25,000) | A $250 yearly fee is 2.5% of $10,000 and 1.0% of $25,000, every year | What if you invested $10,000 in gold 20 years ago? |
| Buying after a record year | Gains followed 7 of 9 big years, losses after the 1980 and 2011 peaks; January 2026 buyers were down 12.6% by September 28, 2026 | What happened after gold's biggest up-years; A gold IRA opened in January 2026 |
| Retiree facing RMDs | A falling price forces more ounces to be sold for the same dollar RMD | How taxes and RMDs change gold IRA returns |
| Holding under 5 years | 15 of 46 five-year holds lost money with no costs, 33 of 46 at a 39.99% spread | How often a 10-year gold IRA lost money |
Questions readers ask about gold IRA returns#
Readers ask 7 further questions about gold IRA returns, answered briefly below.
Is a gold IRA a good investment?#
A gold IRA has been a good investment mainly for savers who paid a low markup, held gold beside stocks and bonds, and avoided buying near a peak. Buyers at the peaks of 1980 and 2011 waited years to break even, and January 2026 buyers were still waiting on September 28, 2026.
Whether a gold IRA is a good investment for your situation is weighed separately.
Has gold outperformed the S&P 500?#
Gold outperformed the S&P 500 with dividends from 2000 to 2025, returning 11.0% a year against 8.0%. It trailed from 1971 (9.0% against 11.1%) and by far more from the end of 1980 (4.6% against 11.7%).
How much will $10,000 in gold be worth in 20 years?#
Nobody knows, and this page makes no forecast. Over the 36 twenty-year periods since 1971, gold's yearly return ranged from -3.8% to 12.4%, with a middle value of 5.8%. The rolling-window table shows the full range.
How much gold should you hold in an IRA?#
No study we could read gives one right share. In SafeOunce's backtests from 1972 to 2025, moving 10% of a 60/40 portfolio into gold raised the yearly return from 9.4% to 9.7%. It also cut volatility from 11.2% to 9.9%. A backtest replays a mix through past prices.
From 1981 the same 10% lowered the return, from 10.1% to 9.7% a year. How much gold to hold in an IRA therefore has no official answer. The research and backtests on how much gold to hold in an IRA are collected separately.
Does gold go up in recessions and stock crashes?#
Gold rose in 7 of the 8 US recessions since 1969 (monthly averages, NBER peak to trough), but it fell in fast panics. From March 6 to March 19, 2020, gold fell 12.4% while stocks fell 18.9%. Recessions here are the ones dated by the NBER, the research group that marks US business-cycle peaks and troughs.
The table of gold during recessions covers all 8 since 1969. Gold during stock market crashes is covered on its own page.
Why do Warren Buffett and Dave Ramsey dismiss gold's returns?#
Warren Buffett argued in his 2011 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter that gold produces nothing. He wrote: "if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end." From February 24, 2012 to September 28, 2026, gold grew 2.33 times, while the S&P 500 grew about 7.2 times with dividends.
Dave Ramsey's company quotes gold returns without stating how it computed them, so this page does not reuse them. Why Dave Ramsey and Warren Buffett say no to gold is answered point by point.
Is it better to have physical gold or a gold IRA?#
The return on the metal is the same either way; the difference is taxes and costs. Gold held outside an IRA is taxed as a collectible at up to 28% on long-term gains (IRS Topic 409). A traditional IRA defers tax until withdrawal.
The gold IRA vs physical gold choice comes down to taxes and costs, not to the metal's return. Costs and taxes of a gold IRA vs physical gold are compared line by line.